Blog
March 13th, 2026
“Headline Noise vs. Long Term Fundamentals”
Unless you’ve been living under a rock, the headlines this week have been impossible to miss. With the conflict in the Middle East dominating the news and oil prices experiencing a sudden, sharp spike, it’s understandable if you’ve felt a bit of “headline anxiety.” When global tensions flare up, our instinct is often to look at our portfolios and wonder if we should be doing something—anything—to protect ourselves.
But I want to offer a different perspective. When you zoom out, the history of the stock market reveals a consistent, and frankly, encouraging truth: markets are incredibly resilient, and they are much better at looking through geopolitical “noise” than we often give them credit for.
What History Actually Tells Us
It’s easy to feel like the current conflict with Iran is unprecedented. But if we look at the data—and I’ve been reviewing reports from the last few decades—geopolitical shocks are a recurring theme. From the 1973 oil embargo to the 1990 Gulf War, and even the start of the conflict in Ukraine in 2022, markets have been here before.
The evidence is clear: while these events often trigger a sharp, short-term pullback—often in the 5% to 8% range—they rarely derail the long-term upward trajectory of the economy. In fact, research from various firms shows that in roughly 70% of historical cases, the S&P 500 was higher one year after the onset of a geopolitical shock. Markets don’t trade on headlines; they trade on the fundamentals of economic growth, corporate earnings, and interest rates.
Separating Signal from Noise
The “signal” right now isn’t the daily back-and-forth in the Strait of Hormuz; it’s the underlying strength of the American economy. We are seeing a resilient consumer base and corporate earnings that have continued to drive value even through periods of uncertainty.
Yes, energy prices are a valid variable to watch. When the cost of moving goods increases, it acts like a tax on the economy. But history shows that companies adapt. They optimize supply chains, they adjust pricing, and they innovate. The stock market is essentially a voting machine for future corporate profits, not a news ticker for the nightly broadcast.
What this means for you:
The temptation to “time the market” during these periods is a trap. If you move to the sidelines because you’re worried about the news, you often end up missing the “recovery rally”—those few days that account for a significant portion of long-term market gains. Missing just the ten best market days over a long period can cut your cumulative returns in half.
- Stay the Course: If your portfolio was appropriately balanced for your goals last month, it is likely still appropriate today.
- Focus on the “Why”: We aren’t investing to beat the news cycle; we are investing to fund your retirement, your family’s education, or that “Silver Splurge” trip you’ve been planning.
- Leverage the Volatility: If you are in the accumulation phase, these pullbacks aren’t a disaster—they are an opportunity to put your contributions to work at slightly better prices.
We have navigated election cycles, global pandemics, and regional conflicts before, and we have come out stronger on the other side. Let’s keep our eyes on the horizon. The headlines are loud, but your long-term plan is the signal that actually matters.